2024 Presidential Race
Deep Insights & Predictions
Summary
Purpose – This report is a crystal ball. It is a look inside the minds of the likely voters in the 2024 Presidential Race. If we know what they’re saying, we know what they’re thinking.
Data – The data contained in this report was obtained using proprietary Convée technology which scrapes most of the surface web and much of the dark web as well. We then combine our data with existing polls and voter demographics for a holistic view of virtually all available data.
Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
During the week of May 28, 2023 – June 8, 2023, Joe Biden was the main focus among the candidates. Biden expectedly has the highest volume of conversation of the candidates overall, with 66%. Trump takes 15%.
Political Issues
...And What People Are Saying About Them
Figure 3 Volume of political topic discussion. – Convée OSINT
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Political Topic Discussion Volume
Economy/Inflation – The majority of Americans are feeling financial difficulties due to rising costs caused by inflation, with around three-quarters of them experiencing hardship. As a consequence, many have to reduce their expenditures on various essentials such as commuting to work, groceries, and essential utility bills.
Immigration/Border Security – Conversation discusses stricter border control, the question of whether illegal immigrants be allowed to stay or be deported, the impact that illegal immigrants have on sanctuary states, and should the government increase spending and aid/security at the border.
Infrastructure – Many want to see infrastructure improvement. Improving and rebuilding various aspects of transportation infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, public transit, railways, ports, and airports. Guaranteeing that everyone has access to safe drinking water without any lead contamination. Supporting environmentally friendly transportation choices for cars and buses as a means to address climate change. Transitioning to clean and renewable energy sources. Ensuring that high-speed internet is available to all, regardless of their location.
Environmental – Most conversations say that climate change is impacting their local communities. Many hope for more efficient public transport as well as more affordable options for Electric Vehicles.
Taxes – Many oppose a system that frequently places higher effective income tax rates on middle- and lower-income earners compared to many higher-income individuals. Additionally, they are concerned about certain higher-income taxpayers being able to completely avoid taxation.
Legal/Foreign Policy – Some believe that America should not bear the sole responsibility for resolving the world’s conflicts. Numerous critics raise concerns about the government’s intervention in the Russia and Ukraine conflict and how our involvement may have exacerbated the situation. Their desire is to repair damaged relationships and facilitate conflict resolution.
Let's Start With Trump
Figure 4 President Donald J. Trump
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Figure 5 Donald Trump Sentiment Tracker. Source – Convée OSINT
Former President Donald Trump is the top contender for the GOP Presidential nomination. His main rival overall in the 2024 presidential race will be the incumbent, President Biden, who is also by far the top contender for the DNC presidential nomination. Recent polls and public opinion show that many voters support Trump over Biden.
Based off the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, 47% would support Trump and 40% would support Biden. An even further break down of the poll showed that 86% of Republicans support Trump in comparison to the 77% of Democrats that support Biden.After Gov. DeSantis announced his desire to run for the presidential nomination the Harvard poll shows very equal results for Biden and DeSantis. DeSantis had a 41% approval rating while again Biden had 40%.
The latest RealClearPolitics.com average of the head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden has Trump leading 45.5% to 43.7%, and it is only mid-2023.
Trump: Position Sentiment
Positions
- Supports legislation that represents a “record investment” for police and increases “vital liability protections for America’s law enforcement officers.”
- Will likely pardon “a large portion” of individuals convicted of federal offenses for their participation in the 06 Jan 2021 event at the U.S. Capitol.
- Will likely sign an executive order instructing federal agencies to “cease all programs that promote the concept of sex and gender transition at any age”; punish doctors who provide gender-affirming care to minors.
- Wants to “get something done” on abortion; declines to specify how many weeks into a pregnancy he would support a ban; says a federal ban should include exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.
- Is committed to ending the war in Ukraine, stating “the war would be over if he were President.”
Conversations when Trump is mentioned recently
- “This infuriates me more than even Donald Trump! And that says a lot because I hate Trump’s guts!”
- “Federal prosecutors have informed Donald Trump that he is a criminal target, alluding to his probable formal accusation shortly. This is part of an investigation into the alleged unauthorized use of classified documents.”
- “President Trump won 2016, 2020, and 2024!! God bless President Trump. I’d vote for him, if I was an American citizen, he’s at least a thousand times better than the communists who’re deceptively calling themselves the democratic party, voting for real freedom means voting for Donald Trump, the greatest American POTUS (President of the United States) of my lifetime.”
- “Fortunes will change. But as of now, every Republican White House hopeful is looking up at our former President Donald Trump, who is the undisputed frontrunner in the crowded contest. Here are some takeaways on where the Republican contest stands: IT’S A LARGE FIELD AFTER ALL, Trump launched his campaign nearly seven months ago in an effort to scare off potential challengers.”
Convée Analysis
This is an overall assessment of the conversation surrounding former President Donald Trump between May 28, 2023, and June 8, 2023. Trump is still immensely popular with most Republicans and many of them believe that Donald Trump will become the 47th president due to his views on economic policies and his stance on international affairs. Conversely, he is highly unpopular with Democrats and a considerable portion of the general public. Throughout the years, Trump has been linked to various scandals and legal troubles, with the latest indictments receiving substantial media attention. Nevertheless, the legal troubles have only strengthened Trump’s appeal to Republican voters, with many believing it is a partisan, political witch hunt and that a vote for Trump is a vote against the establishment, and a vote for the economic policies and international relations that America desperately needs. These beliefs from Republican voters make him a strong contender for the presidency.
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
The chart above shows the volume of conversation in the United States concerning different political issues. The economy is mentioned the most due to current government expenditures, deficits, & social security issues. Florida drove the narrative and had the highest conversation volume of any state. Florida’s fast-growing economy has been the reason why it presents a larger number of political issues. Florida is now the third-largest populated state, and in the first three months of 2023, Florida’s economy grew by 3.5%.
Trump Vs. Candidates
Trump and DeSantis produce very similar conversation volume, with Trump generating slightly more. Joe Biden is mentioned in 66% of the conversations observed.
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
It can be inferred that Biden produces so much conversation because he is the current President and is discussed more in connection to most current domestic and foreign political events.
Joe Biden : Position Sentiment
Positions
- Says he would protect Social Security and Medicare.
- Wants to cap the cost of insulin at $35 a month for all Americans.
- He wants to veto a national abortion ban if one makes it through Congress.
- Promises to protect democracy and ensure that the nation’s traditions, including open elections, remain.
- Says he will continue to provide aid and assistance to Ukraine to keep Russian aggression at bay.
- Will make the “wealthiest and the biggest corporations begin to pay their fair share” with a billionaire minimum tax; close tax loopholes; “quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks to encourage long-term investments instead;” ensure that anyone making under $400,000 a year will not see tax increase.
Figure 8 President Joe Biden
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Figure 9 Joe Biden sentiment tracker. Source – Convée OSINT
Snippets
- “Biden is just a puppet for Obama. And Obama is the anti-Christ.”
- Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4812794 “Biden has lost nearly all democrat support and the only support Biden has left are rabid Gen Z LGBTQ+ radicals.
- House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) announced the FBI agreed to allow every member of his committee to see a document containing bribery allegations against President Joe Biden. This concession led the oversight panel to remove a business meeting to vote on holding FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the schedule for Thursday, according to Comer’s team.
Convée Analysis
Joe Biden’s supporters value his political background, his commitment to tackling urgent problems like COVID-19, climate warming, and racial fairness, as well as his emphasis on bipartisanship and unity. Supporters think he will bring stability, empathetic leadership, and a dedication to progressive values to the White House. Joe Biden’s detractors have voiced reservations about his policy agenda, including doubts about the effects of his suggested tax and infrastructure initiatives on the economy. Others have concerns with his foreign policy strategy and think that his administration has not gone far enough to address specific problems or keep campaign pledges. Many specifically point to the US military’s tragic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Ron DeSantis: Position Sentiment
Positions
- Will encourage Congress to accept nationwide school choice legislation. This bill expands available school choice options for all students in Florida by eliminating financial eligibility restrictions and the current enrollment cap.
- He supports the six-week abortion ban which he signed into law in Florida. That law includes exceptions for rape and incest up to 15 weeks. This ban would prevent four million Florida women of reproductive age from accessing abortion care after six weeks. This ban gives DeSantis a key political victory among Pro-Life Republican primary voters.
- Has not taken a position on whether the U.S. should send more military aid or weapons to Ukraine. A recent poll from “Pew Research Center” shows 40% of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters now believe the U.S. is providing too much support for Ukraine, up from 9% last year. DeSantis has now changed his views on aiding Ukraine since Russia in 2014 illegally annexed Crimea where he was in full support of providing aid.
- Will declare a national emergency to mobilize more resources to the southern border and “construct the border wall.”
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Figure 10 Ron Desantis topics mentions across the U.S. – Convée OSINT
The conversation mentioning DeSantis spiked on June 2, 2023, due to his campaign events in Lexington and Bluffton, South Carolina. There he addressed the comment made by Trump fixing America in six months and stated, “He couldn’t do it in his first four years.”
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Figure 11 Top 5 Presidential candidates in conversations as of June 8th. Source – Convée OSINT
As of June 8th, 2023, the conversation of DeSantis among the top 5 candidates discussed: DeSantis 68,983 snippets, former President Donald Trump 88,375 snippets, and current running President Joe Biden 373,363 snippets.
Figure 12 Ron DeSantis
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Figure 13 Ron DeSantis sentiment tracker~ Source – Convée OSINT
The sentiment towards Ron DeSantis is balanced, with both positive and negative aspects being notable. On the positive side, his policies supporting the economy and his effectiveness of handling of natural disasters and the pandemic have earned him praise. However, there are interesting negative discussions surrounding DeSantis, such as claims that he is supported by Soros, and employing Dominion Lawyers. Soros, while describing DeSantis as “shrewd, ruthless, and ambitious,” also suggested that he could potentially be the Republican candidate.
Positive Snippets
Governor Ron DeSantis signed the largest tax relief plan in Florida’s history, providing Florida families with $2.7 billion in tax relief during the 2023-2024 fiscal year. (Which could save families up to $1,000 in a year.)
“As a Floridian I love DeSantis on Covid and many other issues.”
“Governor DeSantis has built the strongest and most progressive organization in the history of American politics.”
“As usual DeSantis is right on top of things, and actually putting in the work to secure elections.”
Many positive snippets come from topics surrounding DeSantis as the governor of Florida.
Negative Snippets
“Ron the destroyer is not what America is looking for. We need a President for all of America. We need messages of unity. We all are here together in this melting pot of DEMOCRACY.”
“DeSantis problem is he’s so obsessed with ideology and the woke thing.”
“Looks to me that Ron DeSantis is running to lose. He knows he knows he cannot win.”
“DeSantis does not believe anything he is saying. He has no values. His only concern is his ambition and his needs to be acknowledged publicly. This is why his views change with whatever is trending in the republican base. He will adopt that trend and try to present the most extreme version of it, as a way to try and get people to believe his stance. He is a narcissist.”
"Make America Florida"
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The higher volume of conversation of DeSantis in Florida can be attributed to him being the current governor of the state. An interesting event occurred when DeSantis “broke” Twitter. He planned to virtually announce his 2024 Republican presidential bid live on the platform, but it was repeatedly disrupted when Twitter’s servers could not keep up with the surge in traffic. Elon Musk also joined him during this announcement. With DeSantis as governor, Florida ranks 48th in the country for average teacher pay in 2023, according to the National Education Association.
Convée Analysis
While DeSantis is a top contender in the Republican Party, polls reduce the GOP race to a two-person bout between Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. Those in favor of Ron DeSantis praise his preservationist arrangements and approach to administration. They appreciate his emphasis on restricted government mediation, monetary obligation, and his endeavors to advance financial development and job creation. Many supporters applaud his method of dealing with COVID-19 and his push for reviving businesses and schools in Florida. Critics of DeSantis attack his COVID-19 style, especially with respect to his resistance to certain measures, such as mask mandates and lockdowns. A few pundits have charged him with prioritizing political aspirations over the wellbeing of the people of FL. Also, there have been strong negative reactions to his natural arrangements, such as his position on climate change and his dealings with water quality issues. His positions on the LGBTQ+ community have also been polarizing.
Mike Pence: Position Sentiment
Positions
- Says he would extend the historic tax relief of the Trump-Pence administration.
- Says he would repeal two federal regulations for every new one.
- Wants to give parents the freedom to choose where their kids go to school and demands respect for our history and religious freedom.
- Would nominate to the Supreme Court only those who support “freedom of speech and religion” and “stand for the sanctity of human life.”
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
On June 7, 2023, conversations about Pence spiked due to him announcing that he was running for president in 2024, setting up a battle with his former boss. Within his announcement, Pence alluded to his Christian faith many times and included rhetoric as well as imagery that highlighted what many consider to be his Christian nationalist viewpoints.
Volume of conversation for Mike Pence is surprisingly low: With only 8,792 snippets for the week, Pence was the fourth most talked-about candidate. Despite this, the former Vice President says, “It would be easy to stay on the sidelines, but that’s not how I’ve been raised.”
Figure 15 Mike Pence
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Figure 16 Mike Pence sentiment tracker Source – Convée OSINT
Negative Snippets
Slammed his former boss for the 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol as he launched his campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
“Mike Pence is the reason these men and women are in prison today! His weak ass refused to follow the Constitution and “hear the evidence” after he promised he would.”
“Mike Pence is a flake who needs to go home and stay home!”
“Former U.S. vice president Mike Pence has offered his most forceful repudiation of Donald Trump to date during a speech launching his 2024 campaign. The Republican accused Mr. Trump of being unfaithful to the U.S. constitution and abandoning conservative values.”
“Mike Pence is a backstabbing coward and pathological liar who has committed political suicide.”
Positive Snippets
“Former Vice President Mike Pence promised the best days of the greatest nation on earth are yet to come.”
“Mike Pence is an honorable man and would make a terrific president.”
“I like Mike Pence very much. He is a very fine man.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Position Sentiment
Positions
- “Says he would dismantle the censorship-industrial complex, in which Big Tech censors, deplatforms, shadow bans, and algorithmically suppresses any person or opinion the government asks them to.”
- Wants to “transform the police;” “train them in de-escalation and mediation skills and partner them with neighborhood organizations.”
- Wants to set a goal to “significantly drop the level of chronic disease in our children.” (Kennedy has also blamed childhood vaccines for autism in the past.)
- Says he would “lead the way toward national reconciliation;” “take racial healing seriously through a program of Targeted Community Repair.”
Conversation mentioning RFK Jr. rose on June 5, 2023. The increased volume was caused by RFK Jr. hosting a Twitter call where he and Elon Musk spoke about COVID vaccinations. There, he expressed support for anti-vaccine sentiment and emphasized the need for freedom of speech.
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Figure 17 Number of times Robert F. Kennedy was mentioned across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
Figure 18 Robert F. Kennedy
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Figure 19 Robert F. Kennedy sentiment tracker Source – Convée OSINT
Positive Snippets
On June 2, 2023, Kennedy received a spike in positive sentiment, he is widely admired for his positive attributes as a politician, continuing his family’s legacy. He is often praised for his strong advocacy of vaccines and public health, garnering him support from various individuals. Additionally, many find his moderate stance within the Democratic Party to be refreshing, as it showcases a willingness to work across the aisle and find common ground. Kennedy’s appearance of concern for the well-being of the people and dedication to serving the public have earned him a positive reputation in many circles.
On June 6, 2023, Kennedy saw another increase in positive sentiment, much of which was gathered from comments on YouTube. It appears that numerous channels produced videos discussing the candidate, showcasing his positions on specific issues such as (Vaccinees, censorship, honest government) and how they should be addressed. Those who hold a positive perception of him believe he embodies the necessary change for the Democratic party.
Negative Snippets
On June 2, 2023, Kennedy also encountered disapproval from certain factions because of his views on vaccines. There are individuals who have voiced apprehensions about his positions and accused him of disseminating vaccine misinformation, leading to doubts about his reliability. Moreover, his moderate approach within the Democratic Party has been met with criticism from those who advocate for a more assertive stance on specific matters.
On June 6, 2023, The increase in negative sentiment originates from negtive language within a positive statement. A significant number of people are of the opinion that Biden is too hesitant to engage in a debate with RFK, and they discuss how RFK could potentially have the advantage if such a debate were to occur.
Convée Analysis
Kennedy’s supporters value his environmentalist attitude and efforts to raise awareness about topics such as climate change, water pollution, and vaccination safety. Many see him as a committed activist who battles for social and environmental justice, often challenging corporate interests and government policies they believe are detrimental to public health and the environment. Critics of Kennedy, express alarm about some of his opinions and statements. His attitude toward vaccines, in particular, has sparked debate, with detractors claiming that his words and activities on vaccine safety have encouraged misinformation and hindered public health initiatives.
Vivek Ramaswamy: Position Sentiment
Positions
- Wants to increase the voting age to twenty-five. Voters under twenty-five could vote by completing a national service requirement or passing a civics test.
- Says he would “shut down” the Department of Education, the FBI, and the IRS; “rebuild from scratch when required.”
- Says he would ban “gender confusion care for minors.”
- Says he would pardon “defendants of politicized prosecutions” including Trump and “peaceful Jan. 6 protestors.”
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
There is an increase in conversation between May 27 and June 8, since he has been listed with Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, and other Republican presidential hopefuls. The spike on May 28, occurred because of various speeches he made in Chicago and Iowa where he answered a live audience’s questions, which increased his exposure as he began to campaign roughly a year and a half before the 2024 election. June 1, saw a spike after Vivek harshly criticized Elon Musk for his ties to the Chinese Communist Party. Another notable piece of information from this date suggests that Vivek is against the United States support of Ukraine. The third spike on June 5 consists of conversations surrounding Vivek commenting on President Biden being a “puppet of powerful interests.”
Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
Positive Snippets
The main spike in positive sentiment on June 5, was due to various conversations about Ramaswamy’s position of protecting Taiwan and being “guided by faith.” Within the Republican Party, these can be seen as positive and a common theme among the other candidates that are noted as the strongest candidates aside from Trump and DeSantis. The increased conversation about protecting Taiwan and being a faith-driven candidate plays in his favor when considering the known stances of the front-runners in the party.
Negative Snippets
A negative spike on June 7, occurred after Vivek’s LinkedIn account was shut down after he made comments regarding both China and climate change, this led to claims and conversation stating that he was a victim of censorship. After analyzing the data, there is no clear explanation or discussion of what he said and why the comments caused his account to be removed, which backs up the idea that he is a victim of censorship. One blogger commented that this potential act of censorship should “worry anyone who cares about democracy in America.” Another notable negative conversation was a mention of Vivek’s appearance on “This Week” to promote an “insipid and insidious idea,” which was- giving Russia a military victory. This can sound like appeasement to potential voters, which may not be acceptable with moderate Republicans voters.
Tim Scott: Position Sentiment
Positions
- Signs the “most conservative pro-life legislation” that Congress sends him; would not specify how many weeks into a pregnancy he would support a ban.
- Wants to “fully fund the construction of the wall at the southern border,” reinstate Title 42 “to combat the fentanyl crisis,” and end sanctuary cities.
- Says he will boost domestic manufacturing, increase employment, and revamp the education system by “empowering parents.”
In terms of his presidential campaign, Senator Tim Scott officially launched his 2024 presidential campaign on May 22, 2023. Representing South Carolina in the Senate since 2013, Scott portrays himself as a true conservative. His campaign has been marked by a positive, aspirational message, adding to a growing and fractious Republican primary field. As a Black conservative from South Carolina, he is a stalwart abortion foe and gun rights advocate, and his campaign has been noted as a significant event given that he is the first Black Republican senator from the South in more than a century.
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
Although Tim Scott was only mentioned in 1% of conversations between May 27 and June 9, polls released on June 8 show that he was the third-leading GOP candidate with 7% of the vote, behind Ron DeSantis at 29% and former President Donald Trump, who remained the frontrunner with 39% of the vote. However, it seems unlikely that he will gain much more significant traction as the field has grown large with Republican players such as Mike Pence, Nikki Hayley, and Vivek Ramaswamy. Many suspect that (aside from Pence or DeSantis) some of these candidates may be throwing their hats into the ring to become the next Vice President of the United States or to obtain another Cabinet position.
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
Between May 28 and June 8, there are two spikes in conversation, with the smaller spike occurring shortly after Tim Scott entered the race. The second spike is much more significant on June 5, after his now viral appearance on The View, where the South Carolina Senator shared a message of optimism and hope for the American Dream, arguing against the liberal-leaning show’s agenda, especially when host Sunny Hostin asked him about systemic racism. The lone black Republican currently serving in the Senate pushed back by explaining that he refused to give into a victimhood narrative as every Black host on the show was living proof that truly anyone can make it in America. It was a refreshing message that seemed to resonate with the American public who saw the clip. Based on the breakdown of conversations of Tim Scott, 25% of conversations were positive, 16% negative. Much of the conversations were just regarding his announcement for president.
Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
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Figure 1 Number of Candidate mentions across the internet. Source – Convée OSINT
Positive Snippets
“Tim Scott may be the best of the candidates the Republican party has seeking the 2024 nomination.”
“How is The View still on the air? I like Tim Scott so much; I think he is really running for DJT’s VP Tim Scott, thank you for being the intelligent, well-spoken gentlemen that you are. Hats off to you! You most definitely held your own among the attack of “ladies” of The View. You are most certainly presidential material.”
“Trump without the baggage. Love Tim Scott.”
Negative Snippets
“Tim Scott is wrong to downplay the huge challenges that black Americans still face in America from health disparities to lax investments in poorer black communities. Scott is wrong to support Trump in 2016 and in 2020.”
“They know they are baked into the system. Tim Scott denies the existence of systemic racism despite the mountains of evidence that exists to the contrary. As does Clarence Thomas despite the fact his ascendancy to the Supreme Court can pretty much be attributed to affirmative action laws c’mon Tim. There are exceptions in everything, but the notion we have eradicated systematic racism is absurd beyond belief. The modern-day Republican Party is literally a sea of white people with a few Black and Hispanics up front as tokens. More importantly, Tim Scott has the personality of cardboard and ZERO chance of winning. That is the reality.”
“Tim Scott is a fool, pandering to them folks… he knows the truth.”
Convée Analysis
Based on an analysis of conversations between May 28 and June 8, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott appears to be generally well liked, but due to the growing field of GOP Candidates, he will have a significant uphill battle to increase name recognition by making the media rounds to win over both the donors and voters alike. While both Trump and DeSantis have an abundance of key issues and scandals that theoretically would work against them, the reality is that this has only kept their names in the media on a near daily, if not hourly, basis. Tim Scott has very few issues or scandals, but he also has not received the same amount of media attention as the two front-runners despite being the only black Conservative in both the Senate and on the Presidential ticket. Ultimately, Tim Scott would be a valuable choice as the Vice-President on a ticket.
Tim Scott: Position Sentiment
Perry Johnson: Businessman
- Cut two cents of every dollar in federal discretionary spending “to end inflation and solve the debt crisis.”
- Dismantle the Department of Education.
- Pardon Trump
Don Burgum: Governor of North Dakota
Doug Burgum, the two-term governor of North Dakota, began his career as a software entrepreneur and sold a company to Microsoft in 2001. As governor, he has signed legislation restricting abortion access and limiting transgender health care for minors. Burgum, who said he plans to spend some of his own fortune on his run, has not clarified his opinion on Trump or whether he would support him as the eventual nominee.
Chris Christie: Former Gov. of New Jersey
Christie ran unsuccessfully against Trump for the GOP nomination in 2016. A Trump critic, turned ally, turned critic again, Christie has said he won’t support the former president as the GOP nominee. “I am the viable Trump alternative,” he told The Daily Beast in late April.
Larry Elder: Conservative Talk Radio Host
- Secure the southern border by investing in physical barriers and bolstering Border Patrol resources.
- Combat China by “keeping the Pentagon focused on national defense, not left-wing social experimentation; asserting American dominance in the South China Sea and reassuring our Pacific allies; minimizing our reliance on Chinese manufacturing.”
- Promote school choice.
Asa Hutchinson: Former Gov. of Arkansas
- Reduce the federal civilian workforce by 10%
- Expand computer science education into “every grade school and high school” to help America better compete with China.
- Convene a commission to assure the future of Social Security and Medicare.
- Would sign a federal abortion ban that includes exceptions; has not specified how many weeks into a pregnancy he would support a ban; as governor, he signed into law a near-total ban with an exception only for the life of the mother while saying he still personally supported additional exceptions.
Nikki Haley: Former Gov. of South Carolina
- Find “national consensus” on abortion; has declined to specify how many weeks into a pregnancy she would support a ban; as governor of South Carolina, signed into law a ban at 20 weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest.
- Restart the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum-seekers; mandate a national E-sanctuary cities;” hire more Border Patrol and ICE agents.
- Supports term limits for members of Congress and “mandatory mental competency tests for politicians over 75 years old.”
Other Notable Democratic Candidates
Marianne Williamson: Author
- “Vigorously resist any effort to restrict, limit, or diminish the reproductive rights and freedoms granted by Roe v. Wade.”
- “Declare a national emergency around the gun violence epidemic” “eliminate the sale of assault rifles and semi-automatic weapons, ban bump stocks, high-capacity magazines, and 3-D printing of firearms.”
Primary Predictions
- Ron DeSantis will continue to close his gap with Trump, but Trump will always remain in the lead.
- Trump wins GOP nomination.
- Ron DeSantis comes in second.
- Tim Scott comes in third (potential VP running mate for Trump).
General Outcome Prediction
Unless 3rd party ballot harvesting is reigned in, voter ID laws are tightened up, and voter rolls cleaned, Joe Biden wins the General election.